Tuesday, December 13, 2011

first stock in the portfolio tracker


MCET
bought 10,000 at .0104 on 6/6/2011 for 111.52
bought 2,000 at .005 on 11/2/2011 for 17.05
bought 5,000 at .0047 on 12/9/2011 for 30.62

There's a 2 cent level, a 4 cent level, a 6 cent, and a 12 cent level in the five year chart. You are likely to be able to sell at 2 cents sometime soon, at 4 cents some time after that, at 6 cents some time after that, and at 12 cents some time after that.

What you can't see is that there's a spike high at 20 cents in 2007 - you need a longer term chart to see it. Try MarketWatch, or use the charts that come with a Scottrade account. Before that there were major tops at $2 and $6 ($5.something).

All told, this is seven price levels at which I could sell. What would happen if I divided my 17,000 share into 7 lots. That's 2,400 shares in each lot. Now I'm going to sell 2,400 at .02 (2 cents), which is $48. Maybe I'll skip that one. At 4 cents, 2,400 shares grosses $96. If I did sell both lots, I now have almost recouped my total investment, and I still have 5 lots to sell. If I sell another lot at 6 cents, I have a free and clear profit on the whole position of $144 - roughly speaking. (That's supposed to be a joke. Anyway, I have a modest free and clear profit.) If I then sell at 12 cents, I have about a $400 profit on the whole investment. If I then sell at 20 cents, I have over $1000 free and clear profit. If I then sell at $2.50 ...

total value
of the trade
total invested: (159.19)
after .02 sale: (111.19)
after .04 sale: ( 15.19)
after .06 sale: 128.81
after .12 sale: 416.81
after .2 sale: 896.81
after $2 sale: 5696.81
after $6 sale: 14,400.00


In a way, it's ridiculous to be buying shares of this. Tiny revenues (but that's actually good for a tiny drug stock like this), declining revenues, but in an orderly way, with some decline in losses, too. Revenues and earnings are reported over a five year period, by the way. And I think drugs is just a stupid business. I'm into natural healing. But there are a lot of small drug companies that seem to be poised for giant upward price swings. I'm not saying that the market is especially ripe in this area at this moment - I think it's more of a long term thing.

I bought the shares, I own the shares, despite the sketchy fundamentals, I think I'll profit from the shares. I'm not sure I'll sell at all those intermediate prices. I'll be thinking it over as events unfold, here. I also sort of expect lower prices in the coming months, maybe as low as .001 ... or even lower. I might buy more.

Finally, will this stock stop at $6, or will it appreciate even more than that over a longer period of years? More intensive research would be required to make that assessment. That, there, is a reason to follow a trading plan like the one just described.

Plus, there's another reason I haven't revealed, here.

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